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Friday, May 23, 2008

This Digital Ad Worker Goes to "11"
Emily Steel starts out her Wall Street Journal article, "More Digital Ads are Produced Offshore", with this eye-opening statement:
Outsourcing has hit Madison Avenue.
I don't think that's exactly late-breaking news, but if that's what the WSJ implies, than in a sense, it is late-breaking news.

The article continues:

Until recently, Web ads were produced mostly by creative types in downtown lofts in places like New York City or San Francisco. But big marketers are now increasingly shipping off that work to little-known businesses in places like Costa Rica and Bulgaria.

One company reaping the rewards is avVenta Worldwide, which has 415 employees in San Jose, Costa Rica; Kiev, Ukraine; and London, as well as Charleston, S.C. Since avVenta launched in 2005, it has built a business out of doing behind-the-scenes production work on Web ads for the agencies that work with some of the world's biggest marketers, including General Motors, Microsoft and Bank of America, at rates about 20% to 50% lower than what agencies pay for similar work in the U.S., ad executives say.

The article then goes on to talk about exactly which processes are being outsourced, and how American advertising agencies view outsourcing as necessary for survival.

Of course, it isn't always about lower costs. Emily Steel nicely says that "The campaigns are labor-intensive to produce -- and most ad agencies can't find enough talent in the U.S. to fill their needs." The article then talks about a Charleston-based company that expanded into Costa Rica "...because its time zones are compatible with those in the U.S., and it has a high concentration of English speakers and a work force with experience in design and development."

I didn't realize that Costa Rican schools were producing such prodigious quantities of ready-made digital design workers. Sigh! I guess we'll just have to lengthen the school day by one more hour so our children will learn yet another skill in order to become competitive in the global economy.

This guy wasn't as nice as Emily Steel in talking about American workers: "
There are a lot of talented people in this country, but there is just a different work ethic that comes with working with people from another country," said Dan LaCivita, senior VP-executive director of Firstborn, a 40-person digital agency headquartered in New York. Referring to a one-to-ten scale system, he said that in the U.S. you can hire "100 'sevens' or 'eights', but you can't hire 100 '11s'. And I want there to be 40 '11s' here."
LaCivita's quote was taken from AdAge.com (login ID required, but the article was copied into one of Rob Sanchez' Job Destruction Newsletters).

I decided to visit the Firstborn Multimedia website. Was it designed by one of their "seven's" or one of their "11's"? Is it my eyesight? Do I not have some sort of essential flash media installed on my PC? Or is it most of it almost (besides the pretty pictures) totally unreadable? I immediately found out why they can't find qualified American workers. It must be some sort of "If you can't read this, you're not good enough to work for us."

I was curious how a foreign-born "11" working in the United States is paid compared to a Costa Rican working in his or her own country. I have no way of knowing how much Costa Ricans earned, but I could find out a little bit about the H-1B's working for Firstborn through the Department of Labor's Foreign Labor Certification Data Center website. According to the Labor Condition Applications (LCA's) filed for fiscal years 2006 and 2007, a Senior Designer makes $65,000 per year, Flash Developers make between $50,000 and $70,000 per year, and a Senior Producer makes $80,000 per year. I doubt if the Costa Ricans are making that much money.

I also can't help but notice that Emily Steel doesn't seems to think the necessary talent exists in the U.S., while LaCivita says, yes, we have the talent, we're just not very good.

Food for thought. If we start producing a bunch of American-born "11's", would the ad agencies start bringing the outsourced jobs back into the U.S., or start replacing the H-1B's with Americans? Shouldn't we start demanding that our nation's executives and politicians also be "11's"?

(Note: John McCain, in a recent Silicon Valley fundraiser, was very sympathetic to donors complaining about the low H-1B limits, and the fact that foreign students "must return" back to their own countries after graduation rather than seek employment in the United States. Do you think McCain is an "11"?)

Cross-posted at Carrie's Nation.

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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

A View from the Subcontinent
Yesterday I ran across what I thought was an extraordinary article by Ashok Mitra from The Telegraph out of Calcutta, India, "Agonies of Connection - How a New Government in the US May Affect India."

I often read online Indian newspaper articles because I often find out more about a story than what is being told to us in the States. (For example, details about the Chrysler-Tata deals.) What I found fascinating about this story was what I thought was the depth of analysis about the upcoming U.S. presidential election, particularly concerning the outsourcing of American jobs to India. (Note: Mitra has some intelligent commentary about the war in Iraq, which really deserves its own post.)

I thought Mitra really hit the nail on the head when he talked about the challenges of using campaign rhetoric in order to be elected, coupled with the challenges of being held accountable for that same rhetoric after being elected into office.

Here are a few choice tidbits regarding outsourcing:
It is not altogether inconceivable that the resolve once expressed by a past chairman of the Federal Reserve Board — he would bring the prime rate down to the level of zero if that would save the American economy — might well be rendered real by his present successor. Even that most extreme measure could be of little avail. For meanwhile, business process outsourcing has cast a shadow across the nation’s landscape. [Emphasis mine]. If to the American entrepreneur an open economic system offered the opportunity to outsource work whereby costs could be markedly pared down, the crisis in employment would persist irrespective of whatever happened to the interest rate structure. Low interest rates will encourage the induction of relatively more capital-intensive technology, while the supply of trained personnel to operate such technology could be ensured by persuading the authorities to issue generous H1B visas. The thrust of the presidential poll campaign has been directed against both BPO and H1B visas, with politicians crying hoarse for a return to a non-liberal regime; leaders of the badly scarred American working class have been shouting the most. Not surprisingly, proposals about how to restore for domestic workers the estimated three million jobs the Bush administration has exported out of the country have held centrestage in the campaign debates.
It's amazing how the Bush administration is reluctant to even admit that there is even a problem, while an Indian newspaper is stating all of the above as fact! Mitra says a little later on:
All the greater reason to expect that greater attention will be riveted on the pre-poll commitments on economic issues. The cry of saving the jobs of American youth will grow shriller. Pressure will intensify to close loopholes in trade laws to prevent placement of orders on foreign firms on work that could be as competently done at home [emphasis mine] never mind if at higher costs. In case necessary, some tax relief may be considered for firms offering extra consideration to domestic workers. Penalty for breach of legislation enjoining preference to domesticemployees, could be stiffened too. There could also be a drastic reduction in the number of H1B visas issued each year.
I'm fascinated by this analysis. From where I'm sitting, I can't possibly see any of the above ever happening, even if a Democrat is elected President. The lure of corporate money flowing into campaign funds is just too difficult to resist. Loopholes could be closed, but other loopholes could be opened just as quickly. Companies would find more ways to send profits to offshore pirate coves (as Elaine Meinel Supkis would say), or, companies could simply just close shop here and move overseas. However, in India, they have reason to monitor the situation very closely, and they are worried.
How will all this affect India? The fastest growing among our industries is the information technology-related services. Many of them depend for as much as 90 per cent or more of their activities on orders flowing in from the US. A substantial part of India’s high rate of growth of GDP, touching more recently almost 9 per cent per annum, has a strong link with the high rate of growth in IT services. Suppose a severe contraction occurs in the activities in the IT sector following the ushering in of the new administration in the US next year. The spin-off could be a major setback for our GDP growth too. Whether such a possibility would turn into a probability can only be speculated on at this moment. What is however obvious is that an interdependent global system has its positive as well as flip sides. Foreigners can offer us bliss; excessive attachment of foreigners can also bring problems in its train.
Mitra practically admits that India's economic success can be greatly attributed to the offshoring of American jobs to their country. Contrast India's growth of GDP with research by economist Susan Houseman, where she states that costs savings from outsourcing and offshoring is incorrectly being applied to U.S. GDP. Ironically, jobs pouring into India is helping their GDP, while these same jobs pouring out of the U.S. is also helping our GDP.
Even in a world ruled by neo-liberal ideology, economics does not decide everything. Just because in an international framework of costs and returns, our software industry has proved to be a world-beater, we cannot expect the Americans to favour us perpetually, if to do so would hurt the interests of their own workers. Economic calculations cannot afford to ignore the desideratum of national interests. [Emphasis mine.]
See that? Even Indians recognize the importance of national interests over pure money-making economics. Do you think they'd ever treat their citizens this way? Mitra finishes up by saying:

Should not we at least prepare ourselves for the contingency of a sudden shrinkage in the demand from the US for our IT-related services? If we have to maintain the momentum of our GDP growth, we need to look for a substitute commodity or service to fill the space the IT sector would be forced to vacate. Do we have the faintest notion where to look for it? In case we have not a clue in that regard, we would have to fall back on growth induced by demand germinating within the domestic economy [emphasis mine]. That would however call for a drastic restructuring of income and assets distribution, including widespread land reforms. This is where China has scored over us. China’s export boom is pivoted on exports of commodities, not so much on outsourcing. That apart, it accomplished one of the most thoroughgoing programmes of land reforms the world has ever seen before it set on the road to export-led growth. It did not put the cart before the horse; we did.
Imagine that! Redistributing assets so that economic growth would depend on increased demand within a country's borders! Do you think we could ever come up with anything so radical? The Indians are looking ahead to what will happen if the influx of IT jobs into their country all of a sudden comes to a halt or even reverses. Mitra does not claim something ridiculous like 4.5 to 7 jobs will magically appear every time they lose a job in the IT sector, or that Indians will move on to higher and better careers in a "new economy", or even that the inevitable "green technology" bubble will transform the entire subcontinent. Mitra and others realize that their nation needs to look ahead and do some serious planning for the future.

(Cross-posted at Carrie's Nation.)

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Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Bill Gates Road Show
Is Microsoft's Bill Gates even relevant anymore? He just finished up a 6-university tour where he's still trying to browbeat students into majoring in information technology. It remains to be seen whether his speeches will inspire anyone to change their career field.

The first paragraph of this article from eSchool News was enough to make me puke:

A widespread shortage of information technology (IT) graduates across North America is forcing Microsoft Corp. and other software companies to look to developing countries such as China to meet their needs, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates says.

“When we want to hire lots of software engineers, there is a shortage in North America—a pretty significant shortage,” Gates said in an interview with The Associated Press. “We have this tough problem: If you can’t get the engineers, then you have to have those other jobs be [relocated to] where the engineers are.”

Trust Gates to try to blame the American public for causing this "problem". According to Bill Gates and his Strong American Schools and Skills Commission cohorts, we are a nation of drooling idiots who weren't smart enough to keep our jobs during the dot-com bust, and aren't able to handle anything much above simple arithmetic when we graduate from high school. In reality, the only "problem" was the public relations fiasco suffered by Gates and other tech company CEO's when forced to confront the fact that the disappearance of IT workers and graduates was part of an elaborate plan to drastically lower labor costs. If you can downsize an entire generation of IT workers and scare their kids from any sort of technical career fields, it will be easier to contract the work out to lower-paid H-1B or L-1 visa workers, or offshore the jobs to lower cost overseas labor markets altogether. From Gates' point of view, things probably couldn't be better.

Could Bill Gates and others hire older workers who are still roaming our streets since the dot-com bust? Hmmh. It doesn't seem possible. According to David Vaskevitch, Microsoft's Senior Vice-President and Chief Technical Officer,
....younger workers have more energy and are sometimes more creative. But he adds there is a lot they don't know and can't know until they gain experience. So he says his company recruits aggressively for fresh talent on university campuses and for highly experienced engineers from within the industry. One is not at the expense of the other, he insists. For him, it is all about hiring the best and brightest—age and nationality are not important. He acknowledges that the vast majority of Microsoft hires are young, but that is because older workers tend to go into more senior jobs and there are fewer of those positions to begin with.
In other words, Microsoft needs an almost endless supply of college graduates, and needs a black hole to shovel the older workers into when they start demanding pay raises.

Why bother touring the universities and telling kids to major in IT fields? It's probably just an elaborate dog and pony show set up to convince us that Microsoft products should be appearing in every facet of our lives, and we need to be educated to use these products. As long as we keep up with our skills, and as long as he keeps nagging us that we're falling behind if we're not using all of his software, we'll keep buying his products. He can then devote his philanthropic life to destroying public schools and giving millions of dollars to private schools to make sure there are enough children who know enough about Microsoft products to keep his company afloat.

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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

For All You Lawyer Haters Out There
I have good news for you! Instead of your harsh slogan of "Kill all the lawyers", you can do the next best thing and send them out of the country.

On Wednesday, January 16 and Thursday, January 17, 2008, the American Conference Institute will be hosting the "India LPO Summit" at The Grand Hyatt in New York City.
Forrester Research forecasts that the value of legal outsourcing to India will grow to $4 billion by 2015 from $80 million today. Legal Process Outsourcing, or LPO as it is popularly called, is the latest trend in outsourcing. The impact of globalization along with the significant cost savings and increases in productivity and efficiency which can be realized, are but a few of the reasons why law firms and in-house counsel are shifting operations abroad.

Some of the latest legal specialties and tasks that "...are susceptible to outsourcing": (or, in other words, Jobs Americans Won't Do - JAWD) are:

  • Litigation - Document reviews, compliance and research (legal and business information)
  • Corporate - drafting and revising, abstraction, due diligence, corporate governance and corporate secretary, credit analysis.
  • Patent - search, drafting, analysis, enforcement and monetization, and patent litigation.

To be honest, most of this work is not even done by full-fledged lawyers, but by law clerks, paralegals, legal secretaries, word processors, or (if given a chance) even just smart people off the street. Junior lawyers may be found doing this work as entry-level work assignments.

Is it even necessary for me to say that many Americans enjoy this type of work, and find it challenging and rewarding rather than mundane and routine? Or how about the fact that top-level lawyers start off by doing this kind of work, which can serve as a solid foundation for a successful career?

One of the speakers is David Perla, the Co-CEO of Mumbai-based Pangea3 LLC. The Careers section of their website indicates openings in India for contract lawyers, scientists, engineers, technologists, patent lawyers, legal researchers and litigation lawyers. Notice how the New York office only publishes openings for a Litigation Sales Lawyer and a Patent Lawyer. Notice also how the openings in India specify they want applicants who have between 2-10 years of experience or 1-7 years of experience. I'm not sure what 40-year old Indians are supposed to do with themselves after they've reached the upper limit on the experience chart.

Check out the Pangea3 blog section where Kevin Colangelo, on December 6, 2007, wrote about the presentation he gave at the Center for Economic Policy Studies’ (CEPS) Fall Symposium at Princeton University:

Simply stated, it’s clear to me that the intellectual debate over offshoring has become merely that: intellectual. Finally. Complex, thoughtful discussions on global economics are indeed valuable and necessary, but at the end of the day, a roomful of non-attorneys did not seem fazed by the notion of Pangea3’s Indian attorneys doing U.S. and U.K. legal work. Their questions were focused on the details of how we do the work, rather than whether it is good for the economy or how this will impact the distinguished U.S. and U.K. legal professions.

I’m hopeful that the insight demonstrated at this Symposium is further proof that offshoring, and in particular, the offshoring of legal services, has matured to the point where it is viewed as a key, but uncontroversial, element of our economy.

In other words, the offshoring geniuses don't have to justify sending our jobs overseas anymore. They are off the hook. Everyone does it now, and there's not a damn thing the peasants can do about it.

(Special thanks to a loyal reader for letting me know about Pangea3. Cross-posted to Carrie's Nation.)

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Saturday, September 22, 2007

What a Relief!
While hunting and pecking around Google News today, I found that,

On May 21, 2007, Kimball Electronics Group announced 214 workers will lose their jobs during the future closure of their Gaylord, Michigan plant. On July 31, 2007, The Department of Labor certified that the employees are eligible for benefits under the Trade Adjustment Assistance program, which covers workers who lose their jobs due to increased imports or shifting of production to offshore locations.

On August 17, 2007, Maine's Governor John Balducci received word from the U.S. Department of Labor that about 150 workers who lost their jobs after the closure of the Domtar paper mill in Baileyville will be eligible for benefits under the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program.

On August 23, 2007, "Union and labor representatives at Fraser Papers Inc. told a U.S. senator, a workforce representative and local town managers Friday afternoon that the company needs assistance to retrain its remaining labor force and laid-off workers." At the Madawaska, Maine paper mill, "Thirty-six workers at the mill are finishing their final shifts this weekend, another 45 employees have accepted early retirement buyouts, and the possibility remains that as many as 24 more could be accepting packages in the coming months. Another 45 employees face losing their jobs in the next few months. At the end of the latest cost-cutting measures announced by the company, the Madawaska papermaking mill will employ 680 people. Just 10 years ago the company had 1,245 workers at the Madawaska plant."

On August 31, 2007 the Department of Labor certified that 100 plant workers at Wellstone Investors LLC in Eulala, Alabama "might have become unemployed as a result of increased imports."

On September 2, 2007, the Winston-Salem Journal reported that over 1,000 jobs have been lost in Mt. Airy, North Carolina as five plants closed down over the summer. Although many workers will be eligible for benefits under the Trade Adjustment Assistance program, I wish them good luck in finding new jobs. "The next wave of layoffs [in North Carolina] is well under way, this one among white-collar urban workers, with call-center workers, X-ray technicians and software programmers losing jobs to workers in such distant places as India and the Philippines." Finally, "Several major area employers in the region have decided that they can save money by contracting with companies overseas for information-technology services. A short list includes Aon Corp., BB&T Corp., Dell Inc., GMAC Insurance and Wachovia Corp."

On September 10, 2007, a meeting was scheduled to discuss the plans to close the Intec Groups Newton County, Indiana auto parts plant by the end of the year. Intec plans to "....lay off 99 workers by Oct. 1 and eliminate 170 total positions by December. "

On September 13, 2007, the Department of Labor approved Micron Technology's "...request for federal aid to help the more than 1,000 workers the company has laid off in the Boise area since June."

On September 14, 2007, the Republican-American News out of Waterbury, Connecticut reported that "A total of 33 employees laid off recently by Risdon International Inc. can apply for extra help while looking for work under a federal program that aids workers who lose their jobs because of foreign competition, state labor officials said."

On September 19, 2007, "....Carhartt Inc. officials told workers that 33 employees will be laid off, effective Dec. 31." The layoffs are necessary as the company converts the Galesburg, Illinois sewing plant to a distribution plant. "....although Carhartt manufactures more workwear in the U.S. than any company; 96 percent of the product produced domestically by the entire industry is made outside the U.S., making adjustments necessary."

On September 20, 2007, the Kansas City Star reported that (former Michigan governor) John Engler, the current president of the National Association of Manufacturers, seems to think that the American manufacturing industry is in pretty good shape right now. "...we think some of the fundamentals in the U.S. economy are still pretty strong as far as manufacturing is concerned." Engler said. He continued “Exports are up, and productivity is increasing for U.S. manufacturers. We just want to see steady progress being made.”

Whew!! Thank heavens for the reassuring words of John Engler! I was starting to get worried for a moment.

(Cross-posted at Carrie's Nation.)

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Monday, August 27, 2007

Goodbye, USA?
According to London's Guardian/Observer newspaper, Ford and GM are threatening to pull the plug on all remaining US factories unless the UAW agrees to what would essentially be a 30% pay cut. Reportedly, the automakers are looking to reduce the hourly cost per vehicle from $71.00 per hour to $50.00 per hour. From looking at the article, I'm under the vague impression that hourly pay rates may remain roughly unchanged while employee benefits may be pared considerably. Or, I could be wrong. Regardless, any cuts of this magnitude would be enormous.

I'm also unsure what would be involved as far as "....[the auto companies planning to] move their North American operations to countries in Latin America and Asia where manufacturing costs are cheaper." I can't imagine the triumvirate of Wagoner, Nardelli and Mulally moving their executive offices to China, but nothing surprises me at this point. About a year ago I predicted (I admit somewhat sarcastically) that there would be nothing left of GM in the US except Rick Wagoner, his administrative assistant and a receptionist. Not too many weeks ago I was predicting that some of our country's most iconic companies would move completely overseas. I was somewhat predicting that first company to be Microsoft, but any of the Big 3 could make the move instead. Far-fetched? I sure hope so. I'm hoping someone emails me this blog post 10 years from now and tells me what I an absolute idiot I was for even coming up with the idea.

I know you are all intelligent readers, but I'll point out the obvious anyway. Don't think in any way that the auto company ailments are limited to the city of Detroit. Already, Japanese auto plants here in the US are reviewing their pay structures to bring wages in alignment with lower local prevailing wages rather than with UAW rates. (I unfortunately could not find the February 8, 2007 Detroit Free Press articles or the Toyota memo .PDF file online that describes this situation. Please contact me at carriesnation at that certain hotmail address if you would like more information.)

Lower wages for UAW members will mean lower wages for the rest of us. If the Big 3 decide to up and leave the country, Detroit autoworkers (including finance and IT professionals in addition to the blue collar workers) will be flooding the country looking for employment, further driving down wages. Already, "The median price of homes in the US is expected to fall for the first time since federal housing agencies began keeping statistics in 1950." I have no doubt that Detroit's dubious distinction of having the "...metro-area with the highest metro foreclosure rate" contributed to that forecast.

(This article is cross-posted at http://carriesnation.blogspot.com)

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