"When it comes to temporary entry of business professionals we signalled that we are ready to have that conversation in the context of the Doha round," U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab told reporters.

Susan Schwab is eager to use our technology jobs as a bargaining chip, but surprisingly India isn't buying the deal. As proposed by the U.S. we will give away our technology jobs if India will allow our agri-businesses to export rice, wheat, and other farm products duty free. Indian farmers refuse to go along with the deal because they argue that our agri-businesses are government subsidized. They are worried about their jobs!

“Professional visas would have allowed free movement of people. Today, if you have to send someone from India to the US to understand a client’s need or any other work, you have to wait for months,” he said.

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“Last year, out of every three (H1B) visas applied for by a company, only one was issued. This year also the ratio was the same. The professional visa would have taken care of this irritant,” said Natarajan. This visa restriction has forced IT firms to hire more American workers for onsite jobs. This pushes up their labour cost. [Emphasis mine.]

Usually, companies depute close to 25-30% of their total employees for onsite jobs. Earlier, most of the onsite jobs were carried out largely by workers from India. That is changing. Today, the proportion of US employees (including of Indian origin) in the onsite team has shot up. [Emphasis mine.]

"That is because the locals bring with them knowledge on local market, domain and technology. Customers are looking for value of both low-cost and high-cost locations.” Subramaniam felt the globally distributed work paradigm is a reality that the companies would have to come to terms with. [Note from Carrie: A paradigm shift that requires a complete change in mindset. American companies hiring local workers!]

“Toyota has localised to such an extent that it is not affected by the protectionist policy of the US,” said Nandy. [Note from Carrie: This is probably Wipro's Sudip Nandy, their Chief Executive of the Telecom and Product Engineering Solutions Business Unit.]

Labels: globalization, H-1Bs, India, media

It is not altogether inconceivable that the resolve once expressed by a past chairman of the Federal Reserve Board — he would bring the prime rate down to the level of zero if that would save the American economy — might well be rendered real by his present successor. Even that most extreme measure could be of little avail. For meanwhile, business process outsourcing has cast a shadow across the nation’s landscape. [Emphasis mine]. If to the American entrepreneur an open economic system offered the opportunity to outsource work whereby costs could be markedly pared down, the crisis in employment would persist irrespective of whatever happened to the interest rate structure. Low interest rates will encourage the induction of relatively more capital-intensive technology, while the supply of trained personnel to operate such technology could be ensured by persuading the authorities to issue generous H1B visas. The thrust of the presidential poll campaign has been directed against both BPO and H1B visas, with politicians crying hoarse for a return to a non-liberal regime; leaders of the badly scarred American working class have been shouting the most. Not surprisingly, proposals about how to restore for domestic workers the estimated three million jobs the Bush administration has exported out of the country have held centrestage in the campaign debates.

All the greater reason to expect that greater attention will be riveted on the pre-poll commitments on economic issues. The cry of saving the jobs of American youth will grow shriller. Pressure will intensify to close loopholes in trade laws to prevent placement of orders on foreign firms on work that could be as competently done at home [emphasis mine] never mind if at higher costs. In case necessary, some tax relief may be considered for firms offering extra consideration to domestic workers. Penalty for breach of legislation enjoining preference to domesticemployees, could be stiffened too. There could also be a drastic reduction in the number of H1B visas issued each year.

How will all this affect India? The fastest growing among our industries is the information technology-related services. Many of them depend for as much as 90 per cent or more of their activities on orders flowing in from the US. A substantial part of India’s high rate of growth of GDP, touching more recently almost 9 per cent per annum, has a strong link with the high rate of growth in IT services. Suppose a severe contraction occurs in the activities in the IT sector following the ushering in of the new administration in the US next year. The spin-off could be a major setback for our GDP growth too. Whether such a possibility would turn into a probability can only be speculated on at this moment. What is however obvious is that an interdependent global system has its positive as well as flip sides. Foreigners can offer us bliss; excessive attachment of foreigners can also bring problems in its train.

Even in a world ruled by neo-liberal ideology, economics does not decide everything. Just because in an international framework of costs and returns, our software industry has proved to be a world-beater, we cannot expect the Americans to favour us perpetually, if to do so would hurt the interests of their own workers. Economic calculations cannot afford to ignore the desideratum of national interests. [Emphasis mine.]

Should not we at least prepare ourselves for the contingency of a sudden shrinkage in the demand from the US for our IT-related services? If we have to maintain the momentum of our GDP growth, we need to look for a substitute commodity or service to fill the space the IT sector would be forced to vacate. Do we have the faintest notion where to look for it? In case we have not a clue in that regard, we would have to fall back on growth induced by demand germinating within the domestic economy [emphasis mine]. That would however call for a drastic restructuring of income and assets distribution, including widespread land reforms. This is where China has scored over us. China’s export boom is pivoted on exports of commodities, not so much on outsourcing. That apart, it accomplished one of the most thoroughgoing programmes of land reforms the world has ever seen before it set on the road to export-led growth. It did not put the cart before the horse; we did.

Labels: Election, H-1Bs, India, offshoring, outsourcing