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Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Just like in the good old USA
Posted by Jill | 7:18 AM
In yesterday's elections in Jamaica, the JLP barely edged out the incumbent PNP, 31 seats to 29 seats, in an election that saw a "modest" (by Jamaican standards) turnout of just over 60 percent. As one might expect, Prime Minister Portia Simpson-Miller has refused to concede:

Last night, Simpson Miller was unyielding. "As of now, we're conceding no victory to the Jamaica Labour Party," she declared at party headquarters. "There are a number of seats that the People's National Party will be taking action (over) and we have to complete the final count tomorrow (today), and we will be watching closely the count," she added.

With the PNP in recent weeks alleging that some members of the JLP had sworn allegiance to foreign powers which, if true, may make them ineligible to hold seats in the House of Representatives, Simpson Miller hinted that that matter could also be headed to court.

"We will pursue action in the courts on some constitutional issues," she said.

The PNP leader also accused some persons of campaigning the day before the elections, which is not allowed, and of vote buying. She told PNP supporters that "you'll hear from the leadership of the party". She said also that in some constituencies, people were barred from exercising their right to vote. "We're not going to stand by and allow criminals to decide the future of the Jamaican people," Simpson Miller said.

Her stance cast a pall of uncertainty over the results of the election which, even after the final count starting this morning, could trigger moves for magisterial recounts in close contests.


Sound familiar? This is the first win by the JLP in a contested election since 1980, and the PNP has a great deal at stake. It will be interesting to see how this recount goes, and just how reminiscent of our 2000 election it becomes. We can only hope that it doesn't become a repeat of 1979-1980, when election-related violence, even though largely confined to Kingston, affected the tourism industry for years, and the impact of which is still felt today.

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Sunday, September 02, 2007

Tired of hearing about next year's election already?
Posted by Jill | 12:39 PM
How about one that's happening tomorrow?

Tomorrow Jamaicans will go to the polls to decide whether to keep the government of the People's National Party or turn over control to the Jamaica Labor Party.

If this all sounds a bit like this to you...





...it's probably useful to go back in time a bit, back to when the U.S.-allied Edward Seaga headed the "conservative" JLP and Michael Manley headed the PNP. Seaga was closely allied with Ronald Reagan in the 1980's, and Manley gave the U.S. fits for a time with his admiration of Fidel Castro, though he later on became less socialist in his political leanings. These two traded off heading up Jamaica for years until Manley died. After Manley's death, the PNP kept control with P.J. Patterson as Prime Minister, and now with Portia Simpson-Miller, who is up for re-election tomorrow against JLP head Bruce Golding.

Of course this is a ridiculous oversimplification of four decades of Jamaican history. But to listen to the radio spots for the two parties, it's difficult to tell which is the conservative party. The "conservative" JLP is promising free education and free health care, and the PNP is asking who's going to pay for it all. Check out these radio spots from both parties, recorded from radio while we were in Jamaica last month.

JLP:


PNP:


The other interesting aspect to this election is the role gender plays. The PNP is touting the benefits that Ms. Simpson-Miller's term has had for women, while the JLP is running some TV and radio ads that show the current Prime Minister as a shrieking harpy:




And taking a page from the 1988 U.S. election, the JLP is throwing the folly of "stay the course" back at the PNP:




At least as of mid-August, the JLP was running its ads in heavy rotation, and it seems to be working. Going into tomorrow's election, the JLP has a whopping nine-point lead:

According to the pollsters, 40 per cent of those surveyed said they would be voting for the JLP at the next elections, compared to 31 per cent who said the PNP. Those who were undecided or said they were not voting amounted to 29 per cent.

[snip]

Pointing out that the findings were based on a 71 per cent turnout, Wignall said a further look at the undecided indicates that five percentage points comprise likely voters with "lukewarm PNP characteristics".

"If these likely voters are sufficiently convinced by the PNP that that party is going to win, the PNP may be able to add 5 per cent to its tally of 31 per cent, making it a much closer fight.

"If, however, the turnout rises significantly higher than 71 per cent, the overall gain will be to the JLP's advantage and its lead should increase even further," he added.


Imagine that: a 71 percent turnout. When was the last time three out of four Americans turned out at the polls during a major election? In 2004, only 55.3 percent of the voting age population turned out at the polls. Jamaicans are far more engaged in the political process than are Americans, and it's not because Americans are fatigued of the media saturation coverage, because if you listen to Jamaican radio these days, there are political ads running during every commercial break. Given Jamaica's history, and the promises made by both parties, one would expect Jamaicans to be as cynical as Americans are about their electoral process -- and yet they're not.

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Sunday, August 19, 2007

Thinking about Jamaica
Posted by Jill | 9:06 AM
It's unusual to sit in New Jersey and thank one's lucky stars that one is not in Jamaica. But thanks to our realization a few years ago that having a whole weekend at home is worth missing one day in Jamaica, we departed as planned on Friday from a normal airport in Montego Bay -- the calm before the storm.

By yesterday, the scramble to leave was in full force, and anyone who didn't get out by 8 PM is going to have to hunker down and ride out the storm. There's always the temptation, when going to Jamaica during hurricane season, to think it would be "cool" -- a unique "experience" -- to see a tropical hurricane. But we here in the northern U.S., where big storms are few and far between, aren't positioned well to have the philosophical attitude that Jamaicans have. And any tourists who didn't even try to get the hell out of there yesterday is not just nuts, but also potentially a disruption for hotel staffers who have to now worry about foreigners not accustomed to tropical severe weather, in addition to protecting their own families and homes.

At 5 AM, it looked like Jeff Masters might be right, and that Jamaicans may have succeeded in praying the hurricane away, or at least to the south. With 145mph sustained winds, this is cold comfort, but the further south the eye hits, the better for Jamaica -- "better" being a relative term.

This real-time loop shows a hurricane still undecided as to just how close to Jamaica it wants to be. It veers west, then northwest, then west again.

All one can do now is wait and see -- and hope that for a country just beginning to emerge from third world status, the huge strides made in infrastructure in recent years aren't reduced to rubble.





UPDATES:

Live (or nearly live) reports from Jamaica at:

Power 106 (audio stream)
Jeff Masters' Wunderblog (and comments)
Weathervine
Negril.com messageboard



ANOTHER UPDATE: You can help Jamaicans in need of medical care and other assistance in the aftermath of Hurricane Dean here.

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Saturday, August 18, 2007

"We don't have enough fuel to stay in a holding pattern...."
Posted by Jill | 8:05 AM
No, this isn't a post about Iraq, thought the title might as well be.

We are back home, thanks to a pilot who resembled one of the Jersey Boys far more than the chiseled, Midwestern, affectless WASP we usually associate with airline pilotry. Yesterday's flight was the first time I'd ever heard a pilot tell the flight attendants to "prepayeh faw depawtcha", and while it made said pilot sound like he should be hanging out on a street corner instead of flying a 737, it obviously struck fear into the hearts of air traffic control at Newark.

Yesterday saw what must have been one hell of a big line of thunderstorms in the New York area, and since our flight had arrived late into Montego Bay, it obviously wasn't refueled before we took off. Therefore, there wasn't fuel to spare circling Newark for an indeterminate period of time. But for some reason, someone decided that we had enough fuel to get to Pittsburgh, and that's where we headed -- until a half-hour later, when the announcement came that we'd been cleared to land at Newark -- a good thing, since they'd been turning the air conditioning off and then on again only as necessary for the last hour to conserve fuel. So I have no idea how we were expected to make it to Pittsburgh.

It was the only glitch in a relatively smooth trip home from Jamaica. After 18 trips over the last 21 years, it's hard to get used to the fact that now the tour companies realize why the bus to take you back to the airport has to show up on time, and that you no longer have to worry about rickety vans that break down on the way to the airport, or buses that pick up passengers along the road who then die on the way to the airport -- both things we've experienced over the years.

But this minor hassle is nothing compared to what Jamaicans are about to endure by tomorrow, as Hurricane Dean, now a Category 4 storm with winds of 150 mph, slams the island with full force. The relief factor at getting home before the storm hits is offset by concern about those whose homes are likely to be destroyed and their lives affected by this storm. I'll be continuing my Jamaica diary over the next few days, with reports on the upcoming election on August 27, Jamaica's growing ethanol industry, and how while Jamaica is still one of the most homophobic countries in the world, at least where hetero sex is concerned, it's a far less prudish media culture than ours.

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Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Jill's Jamaica Diary - Part One
Posted by Jill | 3:50 PM
If I'd known it took me going to Jamaica to get Karl Rove to resign, I'd have come sooner.

AUGUST 11, 2007. By the time our flight touches down in Montego Bay, the reality of not having slept my required 7-1/2 hours per night in more than a week hits me like a ton of bricks. Sangster Airpoert is a mix of the sleepy airport it used to be and the modern international airport it's struggling to become. I debate whether to warn the Chinese man next to me on the plane, who is going to Beaches for his son's wedding, that wearing the huge diamond-and-sapphire ring he is wearing on the beach in Negril is probably not a great idea, then decide not to traumatize him.

At immigration, a sign that was there last December reads, "Please bear with us while we work on the air conditioning." A winding hallway with open ceilings containing ductwork that promises improved air conditioning "soon come", but for now gives the place the atmosphere of a techno 1970's disco leads to two new baggage carousels and Customs. Usually Customs is just a formality for tourists, but today a family of seemingly a dozen people, having ignored at least two directives on the plane and at three checkpoints in the terminal to complete BOTH sides of the immigration card holds up the line for 10 minutes pretending to be literate enough to complete the two entry fields and five checkboxes on the form. Finally, we arrive at the Tropical Tours desk, where the change in our travel dates threatens to cause one of those patented Jamaican Logistical Meltdowns that is nearly impossible to resolve.

(More to come, including the upcoming Jamaican election, audio and video of Jamaican political ads, and how Jamaica plans to become energy independent, even if it means Appleton Rum becomes more expensive.)

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