"Only dull people are brilliant at breakfast"
-Oscar Wilde
Brilliant at Breakfast title banner "The liberal soul shall be made fat, and he that watereth, shall be watered also himself."
-- Proverbs 11:25
"...you have a choice: be a fighting liberal or sit quietly. I know what I am, what are you?" -- Steve Gilliard, 1964 - 2007

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"I came here to chew bubblegum and kick ass. And I'm all out of bubblegum." -- "Rowdy" Roddy Piper (1954-2015), They Live
Sunday, March 06, 2011

We never learn
Posted by Jill | 10:19 AM


If you are too young to have waited in line for gasoline in the 1970's, if you don't remember odd/even gas rationing, signs reading "NO GAS"; if you don't remember when the price of gasoline went from thirty-nine cents a gallon to a dollar practically overnight, you can perhaps be forgiven for feeling that gasoline is an endless resource and that life without it is unthinkable.

But if you are old enough to remember gas lines, even if you were too young to have to actually wait in one, you have no excuse for griping about the price of gas as you spend close to a hundred dollars to fill up your SUV.

We've had blips of high prices before. We usually see price spikes when there is trouble of any kind in the Middle East. We didn't see them so much after last summer's BP oil spill, largely because there was so much outrage at BP that they never would have gotten away with it. But the combination of instability among oil-producing nations, opportunistic oil companies, diminishing supplies of the kind of light sweet crude that's most easily refined, and markets that are more fickle than a prom queen, mean that we have to get it through our spoiled, lunkheaded skulls that the era of cheap oil is over. In fact, the era of even expensive oil is coming to an end -- and if it doesn't it will mean ruin for all of us.

For one brief shining moment, it seemed that the message had gotten through. Suddenly we had a huge selection of smaller cars from which to choose. Suddenly we had hybrids and electric cars and Smart Cars and Mini Coopers to go with the Civics and Corollas and Accents. It even seems as though Ford may have a winner in the Fiesta. And yet the minute the price started to go down, people started buying and leasing SUVs again. I guess it's hard to give up being a bully on the road once you've had a chance to do so.

But there aren't charging stations for the Nissan Leaf yet, and it's about $2000 to put an outlet at your house to charge it up. Most electric cars can still go only about 40 miles on a charge. But a good small car with a twelve-gallon fuel tank that gets a combined city/highway 30mpg will cost you about $48 to fill up at $4/gallon, assuming you don't wait till the little red needle is point to "E", and it'll take you about 360 miles for that $48. Insist on even a small SUV that gets 20mpg, like a Nissan Rogue with a 16 gallon tank, and you'll go forty miles less and pay $64 to fill it up. Insist on a Ford Expedition with combined city/highway 16 mpg and a 33.5 gallon tank, and when gas is $4, it will cost you a whopping $134 to fill it up, but you will go over 500 miles on a tank. Still -- that's a lot of money to pump into a vehicle at least once a week.

It's all part of the reality that the world in which we've been living, one with cheap gas and cheap food and cheap airfares is gone, and gone for good. We've been propping up dictators in the Middle East for a half-century to gain access to oil -- and now we're seeing the results, just as we did when the Shah of Iran was toppled. In 2008 John McCain and Sarah Palin ran for president on a platform of "Drill, baby, drill" -- so that no piece of land can ever be spared to slake our addiction to the stuff. Even if you want to argue that drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Preserve, or off the coast of Florida, or wherever else Republican want to allow drilling so their friends in the petroleum industry can get even richer, is this really where we want to put our energies and our resources? Do you really think that being able to tailgate people like me on the Garden State Parkway is worth $134 a week and all the waters of all our coasts being in the same condition as the Gulf of Mexico is off the Louisiana coast after the folly of BP?

We have been so accustomed to what we perceive at any given moment as "cheap gas" (which now seems to be anything under $3/gallon) that the minute it goes above that, people start clamoring for someone to "do something about it", and that something usually seems to be tapping the strategic petroleum reserve:
White House Chief of Staff William Daley said today the Obama administration was considering tapping into the U.S. strategic oil reserve as a way to help ease soaring oil prices.

Speaking on NBC television's "Meet the Press," Daley said: "We are looking at the options. The issue of the reserves is one we are considering. It is something that only is done -- and has been done -- in very rare occasions. There's a bunch of factors that have to be looked at. And it is just not the price."

"All matters have to be on the table when you see the difficulty coming out of this economic crisis we're in and the fragility," Daley added.

What Mr. Daley doesn't realize is that if petroleum traders and speculators and oil company executives have decided that they WILL have one-party Republican government after the 2012 election, it doesn't matter if they release EVERYTHING from the strategic petroleum reserve so that spoiled suburbanites can drive an SUV to the A&P.

So what's to be done? Unfortunately, very little in the short run. More investment in public transit, increased routes for buses and trains, bicycle paths, flexible work hours, more telecommuting, corporate schedules that make car-pooling viable, solar and wind power -- all these are things that in the long run can help us wean ourselves off oil. The problem is that those who own our government don't WANT to wean us off of oil, because there is just too much money in it.

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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Coming soon to your town
Posted by Jill | 9:00 AM
The feces are starting to hit the fan already, as towns in the south who receive much of their gasoline from the refineries battered by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike find themselves with no fuel:
A gas shortage that closed many stations Monday and left motorists in lines of up to an hour or more at others promises more of the same today.

And worse yet, there will no quick fix in the next several days, officials said.

“People are panicked,” said Marsha Messer, manager of the Roadrunner Shell station on Merrimon Avenue. Messer stood in the station’s parking lot Monday afternoon directing lines of cars.

“We’ve already had three fights today. That’s why we have the cops here, “ she said, pointing to Asheville police patrol cars parked to the side.

The shortages have spread across much of the Southeast as most the 15 Gulf Coast refineries shut down by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike have yet to come back on line, cutting the nation’s petroleum supply by 22 percent.

Some experts said Asheville’s relative remoteness from the Colonial Pipeline, the main artery for East Coast gasoline supplies, and sparse population compared with major metropolitan areas could be adding to the problem.

The pipeline reopened a week ago Sunday, albeit at a greatly reduced carrying rate, and some supplies are reaching the gasoline terminals in Spartanburg and Belton, S.C., that supply the mountains.

But some industry officials had as many questions as answers in trying to explain the problems Monday.


The article goes on to state that once you get out of the mountains, the supply problem is far less, and cites the higher cost of getting tanker trucks out there. But does it cost any more now than it did, say, a month ago?

Is it an accident, that the people who live in these regions are precisely the "white, working class voters" the McCain campaign desperately needs?

Drill Baby Drill indeed.

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Thursday, July 24, 2008

Cue the wingnuts to spin this as "melting polar ice caps are a GOOD thing!"
Posted by Jill | 6:05 AM
Even if you believe that homo sapiens is the only species that deserves to survive and that polar bears are expendible, the very real likelihood that the Arctic ice cap will be reduced by forty percent by 2050 and that seasonal polar ice may be nonexistent this summer ought to be cause for concern. Ecological consequences, ranging from the disappearance of coastal areas of Florida, Louisiana, and the Caribbean and an increase in predator species, combine with the possibility of land wars as passages between northern areas of Canada, Alaska, and Russia become more likely.

But today, watch for the gasbags of right-wing radio to declare the polar bear, the walrus, the seal, and the very life of the indigenous people in the northernmost areas of the world to be expendable in the name of Cheap Gas™:

The Arctic may contain as much as a fifth of the world’s yet to-be-discovered oil and natural gas reserves, the United States Geological Survey said Wednesday as it unveiled the largest-ever survey of petroleum resources north of the Arctic Circle.

Oil companies have long suspected that the Arctic contained substantial energy resources, and have been spending billions recently to get their hands on tracts for exploration. As melting ice caps have opened up prospects that were once considered too harsh to explore, a race has begun among Arctic nations, including the United States, Russia, and Canada, for control of these resources.

The geological agency’s survey largely vindicates the rising interest. It suggests that most of the yet-to-be found resources are not under the North Pole but much closer to shore, in regions that are not subject to territorial dispute.

“For a variety of reasons, the possibility of oil and gas exploration in the Arctic has become much less hypothetical than it once was,” Donald L. Gautier, the chief geologist for the survey, said during a news conference Wednesday. “Most of the resources are on the continental shelf in areas already under territorial claims.”

The assessment, which took four years, found that the Arctic may hold as much as 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil reserves, and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. This would amount to 13 percent of the world’s total undiscovered oil and about 30 percent of the undiscovered natural gas.

At today’s consumption rate of 86 million barrels a day, the potential oil in the Arctic could meet global demand for almost three years. The Arctic’s potential natural gas resources are three times bigger. That equals Russia’s proven gas reserves, which is the world’s largest.


Three years. That's all the time that drilling every drop out of the Arctic would give us. Three years to even further accelerate the decline of non-seasonal ice and permafrost.

Three years.

And then what?

Three years isn't a lot of time to develop alternative technologies, particularly when the government is bankrupt from oil wars and unable to fund any of the kind of research and activities that gave rise to the computer industry and the internet. What three years does is lull people into a false sense that everything is just fine, that there is plenty of oil, when the bottom line is that no matter how you slice it, oil is a finite resource, and when it's gone it's gone. And we'd better start learning how to fuel our lifestyle in other ways, no matter what is in the Arctic that we can now get to because of our folly over the last thirty years.

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Wednesday, July 16, 2008

The wave of the future (unless zoning ordinances get in the way)
Posted by Jill | 6:35 AM
Mr. Brilliant and I live in a Cape Cod-style house, or in the local parlance, "POS Cape." I wanted a cape so that we could have a guest room on a separate floor from our bedroom, and so that we could live just on the first floor at such time as we become too old and infirm to handle the steps. It has occurred to me more than once that the two-rooms-and-a-bath upstairs, along with kitchen privileges, might make a good housing arrangement for a student someday, if we find ourselves short of cash.

I'm not the only one who thinks this way; an increasing number of homeowners are renting out space to help avoid foreclosure:

With residential mortgage foreclosures still on the rise, more homeowners nationwide are considering Miss Terry’s choice: whether to take in a boarder to keep their homes. Modest but growing numbers are turning to agencies nationwide like the St. Ambrose Housing Aid Center Homesharing Program in Baltimore, which screen boarders to find appropriate matches and relieve some of the fear of strangers.

“We’re seeing greater numbers of marginal people,” said Kirby Dunn, executive director of HomeShare Vermont, one of several hundred programs around the country that have been formed since the 1980’s to help elderly or disabled homeowners exchange spare rooms for income or, more often, help around the house, but now being pressed to meet different needs.

“Historically,” Ms. Dunn said, “the people who come to us have been looking for someone to provide services in the home. But now, money is the bigger issue for folks. There’s definitely an increase in people looking for a revenue stream.”

Ms. Dunn said volume at the agency was up this year, with three or four times as many people seeking rooms as seeking boarders.

On a recent Saturday morning, while Miss Terry attended a training session at her church, Katherine Ongiri, 47, celebrated her first week of living in Miss Terry’s two-story house, where she pays $500 a month, in weekly installments. The women work different schedules, but have shared an occasional meal. Miss Terry helped Ms. Ongiri, who does not drive, get her check cashed, and treated her to lunch at Burger King.

“She’s good company,” Miss Terry said. “And I don’t mind helping because I know how hard it is when you’ve got to take the bus, because I’ve been there.”

Ms. Ongiri said of Miss Terry and her daughter, “I don’t mind helping her keep a roof over that girl’s head, because I know what it’s like.”

The two women’s routes to St. Ambrose Housing Aid Center, which culminated in Ms. Ongiri’s moving into Miss Terry’s attic, describe the multiple hazards of the current economic downturn: stagnant wages, rising energy and food prices, exotic mortgages, job insecurity, neighborhood instability and the challenges for single working women to find safe environments for themselves and their children.

“A lot of prayer comes in,” Miss Terry said. “You don’t want someone to try to take over, or cause problems once they get a foot in the door.”

Miss Terry bought her home six years ago, in a hilly neighborhood in northeast Baltimore, for $92,000, with a government-backed mortgage and monthly payments of about $800. She had never owned a home before, and was excited to move out of subsidized housing.

After two refinance loans, like many homeowners she does not understand her current mortgage, which is an interest-only loan. What she knows is that her payments are now more than $1,000 per month, and that she cannot afford them.

“Everything was going up except my paycheck,” Miss Terry said. “During the refinance, people tell you you can get money to upgrade your home, and your mortgage will go up a little bit. O.K., but my paycheck is not rising.”


The problem, at least here in this part of New Jersey, is that strong local governments are already cracking down on housing of nonrelated people in the same domicile, in an effort to prevent the creation of boarding houses for undocumented immigrant day laborers. One nearby town has a new ordinance requiring any home, new or remodeled, with four or more bedrooms to have a two-car garage. The logic behind this escapes me, unless it's based on an assumption that a larger family is going to by definition have more vehicles. A co-worker who decided to reconfigure the new addition to his house for his mother-in-law so that one of the two rooms upstairs would be better classified as a walk-in closet told me that he had to do this or add on to his detached garage on a 50' x 100' lot with no room for an expanded garage.

As incomes continue to shrink, this kind of roadblock placed in the way of homeowners simply trying to make ends meet is going to be increasingly anachronistic. I suspect there will be little outcry, though -- at least not until there are more people in need of the reduced costs of house sharing than there are people trying increasingly in vain to protect a lifestyle whose time is rapidly passing.

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