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Wednesday, February 28, 2007

This is huge
Posted by Jill | 5:31 AM
Up to this point in the Democratic race for the presidential nomination, we had the counterintuitive phenomenon of Barack Obama having the women's vote, and Hillary Clinton having the black vote. But that seems to be changing:

The opening stages of the campaign for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination have produced a noticeable shift in sentiment among African American voters, who little more than a month ago heavily supported Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton but now favor the candidacy of Sen. Barack Obama.

Clinton, of New York, continues to lead Obama and other rivals in the Democratic contest, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. But her once-sizable margin over the freshman senator from Illinois was sliced in half during the past month largely because of Obama's growing support among black voters.

On the January weekend when she announced her candidacy, Clinton led the Democratic field with 41 percent. Obama was second at 17 percent, Edwards was third at 11 percent and former vice president Al Gore, who has said he has no plans to run, was fourth at 10 percent.

The latest poll put Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 24 percent, Gore at 14 percent and Edwards at 12 percent. None of the other Democrats running received more than 3 percent. With Gore removed from the field, Clinton would gain ground on Obama, leading the Illinois senator 43 percent to 27 percent. Edwards ran third at 14 percent. The poll was completed the night Gore's documentary film "An Inconvenient Truth" won an Academy Award.

Clinton's and Obama's support among white voters changed little since December, but the shifts among black Democrats were dramatic. In December and January Post-ABC News polls, Clinton led Obama among African Americans by 60 percent to 20 percent. In the new poll, Obama held a narrow advantage among blacks, 44 percent to 33 percent. The shift came despite four in five blacks having a favorable impression of the New York senator.

African Americans view Clinton even more positively than they see Obama, but in the time since he began his campaign, his favorability rating rose significantly among blacks. In the latest poll, 70 percent of African Americans said they had a favorable impression of Obama, compared with 54 percent in December and January.

Overall, Clinton's favorability ratings dipped slightly from January, with 49 percent of Americans having a favorable impression and 48 percent an unfavorable impression. Obama's ratings among all Americans improved over the past month, with 53 percent saying they have a favorable impression and 30 percent saying they have an unfavorable impression.


The trend is that the longer Hillary's campaign goes on and the more arrogantly it behaves, the less people like her. But what's more important is that the "not really black" argument against Obama seems to be losing strength -- as well it should.

Polls this early are still about name recognition, and Hillary Clinton is still the household name in this race. John Edwards would seem to be an early casualty of the two milestone candidates and noncandidate Al Gore sucking up all the oxygen in the room. -- and his weak response to the likes of Bill Donohue hasn't helped him. But it would seem that if the mudslinging from Camp Hillary continues, Edwards stands to be the primary beneficiary if Gore does not run. I'm not one of those who sees Gore's entry into the race as inevitable. I think at this point he is very comfortable in his own skin and with his own role, and probably realizes that he can make as much of a difference without sitting in the White House -- and not have to deal with the smear machines of either the Republicans or Mrs. Clinton.

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