No shiny arrow shot swifter and loftier from obscurity to quotable authority than Nate Silver, whose FiveThirtyEight.com site became the expert sensation of the election season. (Five hundred thirty-eight is the sum of electoral-college votes up for contention.) Crunching poll numbers until they sang with clarity, Silver, a managing partner and sabermetrician at Baseball Prospectus and a former Daily Kos diarist, made many of the old pros look as if they were stuck in the previous century, milking cows. Not only did his disciplined models and microfine data mining command respect, his prognostications hit the Zen mark on Election Day. “This uncanny accuracy is the equivalent of dropping a penny from the top of a 50 story building and landing it in a shot glass,” John Cole wrote at Balloon Juice. “This is sick accurate.” Silver also became an instant cable-news savant, his geek-genius glasses and owlish mien worthy of a Starfleet sub-adjutant whose quadratic equations coolly foil an attack from a Romulan vessel while the senior officers are frantically poking at their touch screens.

Labels: bloggers

found it bizarre that when Caroline offered to use her magic capital — and friendship with Barack Obama — to help take care of New York in this time of economic distress, she was blasted by a howl of “How dare she?”

People are suddenly awfully choosy about who gets to go to the former home of Jesse Helms, Strom Thurmond and Robert Torricelli.

Although Americans still have enough British in their genes to be drawn to dynasties, W. has no doubt soured the country on scions. And the camps of the other two New York dynasties — the Clintons (still bitter about Caroline’s endorsement of Obama) and the Cuomos (who’d like that Senate seat for Andrew) — have certainly done their best to undermine Caroline.

Congress, which abdicated its oversight role as the Bush crew wrecked the globe and the economy, desperately needs fresh faces and new perspectives, an infusion of class, intelligence and guts.

People complain that the 51-year-old Harvard and Columbia Law School grad and author is not a glib, professional pol who knows how to artfully market herself, and is someone who hasn’t spent her life glad-handing, backstabbing and logrolling. I say, thank God.

The press whines that she doesn’t have a pat answer about why she wants the job. I’ve interviewed a score of men running for president; not one had a good answer for why he wanted it.

Robert Duffy, the mayor of Rochester, complained that when the would-be senator visited the Democratic headquarters there recently, she did not respond to pictures in a conference room of her father, mother, brother and herself as a little girl. Isn’t it creepy to expect her to emote on cue? Isn’t it more authentic to want to keep some of your most private feelings to yourself?

I know Caroline Kennedy. She’s smart, cultivated, serious and unpretentious. The Senate, shamefully sparse on profiles in courage during Dick Cheney’s reign of terror, would be lucky to get her.

And believe me, she talks a whole lot better than the former junior senator from New York, Al D’Amato, who once wailed that he was “up to my earballs” in some mess, and another time complained to me that those “little Jappies” bring over boats full of cars and then take the boats back empty.

Anyhow, it isn’t how you say it. It’s what you say. Hillary Clinton is a great talker, but she never stood up in the Senate to lead a crusade against any Republican horror show, from Terri Schiavo to the Bush administration’s dishonest push to war.

Sitting in the Senate gallery on Tuesday as senators were sworn in by Dick Cheney, I saw plenty of lawmakers who had benefited from family.

Labels: Caroline Kennedy, Maureen Dowd

President-elect Barack Obama on Tuesday braced Americans for the unparalleled prospect of “trillion-dollar deficits for years to come,” a stark assessment of the budgetary outlook that he said would force his administration to impose tighter fiscal discipline on the government.

Mr. Obama sought to distinguish between the need to run what is likely to be record-setting deficits for several years and the necessity to begin bringing them down markedly in subsequent years. Even as he prepares a stimulus plan that is expected to total nearly $800 billion in new spending and tax cuts over the next two years, he said he would make sure the money was wisely spent, and he pledged to work with Congress to enact spending controls and efficiency measures throughout the federal budget.

“We’re not going to be able to expect the American people to support this critical effort unless we take extraordinary steps to ensure that the investments are made wisely and managed well,” Mr. Obama said, speaking about the dire fiscal outlook after meeting with his economic team for a second straight day.

In his most explicit language on the subject since winning the election, Mr. Obama sought to reassure lawmakers and the financial markets that he was aware of the long-term dangers of running huge deficits and would take steps to limit and eventually reduce them.

Big deficits force the government to borrow more money, saddling future generations with large financial burdens and leaving the nation reliant on foreign governments and other big investors to lend cash. The problem is even more acute now because credit markets, which in recent months have made it much harder and more expensive for businesses and individuals to borrow, could be further strained by financing a huge government deficit.

On Wednesday, Mr. Obama plans to name a chief performance officer with the task of finding government efficiencies. He has chosen Nancy Killefer, who is director of McKinsey & Company, a management consulting firm, and was an assistant secretary of the Treasury in the Clinton administration. The Congressional Budget Office will also release its latest budget estimates, providing the first official predictions of the shortfalls tied to the economic slowdown and the fallen financial markets.

Mr. Obama has made the economy virtually the sole public focus of his first full week in Washington since winning the election. He called on Tuesday for the creation of an economic recovery oversight board that would include outside advisers to monitor spending — and find abuses — of the economic stimulus plan. He also said earmarks for lawmakers’ special projects would be banned from the bill.

“When the American people spoke last November, they were demanding change — change in policies that helped deliver the worst economic crisis that we’ve see since the Great Depression,” Mr. Obama told reporters at his transition offices. He added, “They were demanding that we restore a sense of responsibility and prudence to how we run our government.”

But Republicans and some fiscally conservative Democrats have expressed concern that the need for a substantial economic stimulus plan could sweep away for years any serious effort to bring government spending into line with its revenues.

While economists almost universally support running large deficits to combat the kind of steep recession the country is grappling with now, they are increasingly expressing alarm at the prospect of sustained fiscal imbalances heading into a period in which the aging of the population will create huge budgetary strains because of the growing costs of the Medicare and Social Security programs.

Still, the deficit now seems likely to be so large that it will inevitably constrain Mr. Obama’s administration to some degree.

Labels: economic death watch

BREAK ROOM LIVE is the first of its kind; a daily, live online political talk and comedy show. At 3pm Eastern every weekday, Marc Maron and Sam Seder take a seat in the Air America break room to discuss the hot topics of the day, with live guests, comedy sketches, and recurring segments, all streaming live at BreakRoomLive.com. In addition to the daily live broadcast, visitors will be able to view the show on demand, subscribe to vodcasts and podcasts of the show, and chat live, 24/7, with fellow fans and the hosts.

BreakRoomLive.com will also be home to exclusive on-demand video content from Marc and Sam. Along with a fully interactive blog, Marc and Sam will provide BreakRoomLive.com with interviews, political discussions, and irreverent comedy that can’t be seen anywhere else.

“Based upon the fact that no one has developed a model for what we’re doing, we’re confident that people will consider this a success,” said Sam Seder. “I see our show as PornTube meets MSNBC meets Twitter meets PopFly meets Yodio meets SplashCast meets Zillow meets TradeSports meets Meets.com.”

Marc Maron added, “I’m excited that Sam and I will be able to take risks in a new format, and whether we succeed or fail, it will be available online forever.”

Marc and Sam have known each other for 20 years. They’re not quite friends but they’re able to work together. For the right price.

Labels: comedy, Marc Maron, Sam Seder, talk radio

Labels: bloggers

Let’s lay out the basics here. Other things equal, public investment is a much better way to provide economic stimulus than tax cuts, for two reasons. First, if the government spends money, that money is spent, helping support demand, whereas tax cuts may be largely saved. So public investment offers more bang for the buck. Second, public investment leaves something of value behind when the stimulus is over.

That said, there’s a problem with a public-investment-only stimulus plan, namely timing. We need stimulus fast, and there’s a limited supply of “shovel-ready” projects that can be started soon enough to deliver an economic boost any time soon. You can bulk up stimulus through other forms of spending, mainly aid to Americans in distress — unemployment benefits, food stamps, etc.. And you can also provide aid to state and local governments so that they don’t have to cut spending — avoiding anti-stimulus is a fast way to achieve net stimulus. But everything I’ve heard says that even with all these things it’s hard to come up with enough spending to provide all the aid the economy needs in 2009.

What this says is that there’s a reasonable economic case for including a significant amount of tax cuts in the package, mainly in year one.

But the numbers being reported — 40 percent of the whole, two-year plan — sound high. And all the news reports say that the high tax-cut share is intended to assuage Republicans; what this presumably means is that this was the message the off-the-record Obamanauts were told to convey.

And that’s bad news.

Look, Republicans are not going to come on board. Make 40% of the package tax cuts, they’ll demand 100%. Then they’ll start the thing about how you can’t cut taxes on people who don’t pay taxes (with only income taxes counting, of course) and demand that the plan focus on the affluent. Then they’ll demand cuts in corporate taxes. And Mitch McConnell is already saying that state and local governments should get loans, not aid — which would undermine that part of the plan, too.

OK, maybe this is just a head fake from the Obama people — they think they can win the PR battle by making bipartisan noises, then accusing the GOP of being obstructionist. But I’m really worried that they’re sending off signals of weakness right from the beginning, and that they’re just going to embolden the opposition.

First, there seems to be a decent consensus that the tax rebates from last year had little stimulative effect on the economy. So while it's a good thing for families on the margin to get another $500 or $1,000, it's not clear how much bang for the buck you'll get for the money spent in terms of creating demand/consumer spending in the economy.

Second, the amount of the bill that comes in tax cuts leaves the spending side of the bill really small -- judged by the standards of what most economists seem to think is necessary, like $400 billion over two years. So it's not just the logic of the tax cuts on their own merits but the degree they're beggaring the spending side of the ledger. (A lot of this just comes down to whether or not you buy into the Keynesian premise of the whole exercise, of course. But let me note for the record that there does seem to be a decent rationale for significant tax cuts in year one of the bill, since you need to get money into the economy rapidly and there may not be enough projects that can be started quickly. That leaves the question of why so much of it is also included in year two. I fear that may be the 'tell'.)

Third, and in some ways this is the most troubling. It would be far better on many counts to bring in substantial Republican support for this bill. And I don't just mean that in the BS sense in which President Bush usually meant it, which was to say essentially, 'Of course we'd like you to vote for exactly what we want. More the merrier. But if you don't want to vote for our ideal bill, tough luck.' No, I think there's a real logic in not going the 51 votes model President Bush followed. But Obama seems to be telegraphing that to a significant degree the fundamental structure of the legislation is being built around accommodating the concerns of Republicans -- members of a political party that are about as unpopular and weak as you can get at the moment. And that sounds a lot like he's negotiating with himself, something that will embolden opposition and invite Republicans to up the ante even further.

Labels: Democratic sellouts, despair, hopelessness, President Barack Obama

Have you noticed how our governor seems to have convinced herself only some of the rules apply to her?

This attitude was really at the heart of Troopergate. It also allows her to do things like take cash from the state for spending more than 300 nights in her own home in Wasilla.

Now it appears the governor may have found a new way to skirt the rules. How is it possible that the governor's soon-to-be son-in-law, Levi Johnston, is working as an apprentice on the North Slope?

The governor, in trying to dispel rumors the father of her grandchild is a high school dropout, released this statement this past week,

"Levi is continuing his online high school work in addition to working as an electrical apprentice on the North Slope."

But federal regulations require all members of apprentice programs, union or otherwise, to first obtain a high school diploma, something the governor's soon-to-be son-in- law does not have. Some apprentice programs even require the completion of high school level algebra or the post-secondary equivalent.

So how is it that the governor's soon-to-be son-in-law is working in an apprentice program? Is this another case of the governor believing the rules don't apply to her or her family?

Labels: Sarah Palin, The Gift That Keeps On Giving

For all of the luxury of the Obamas’ temporary home — Hay-Adams suites cost as much as several thousand dollars a night — Mr. Obama clearly was not looking forward to the short residency there after nearly two years on the campaign trail. “Well, living in a hotel for two weeks, I kind of did that for two years,” he said.

Labels: hack journalism

What is it, I wonder, about the political right that makes them feel that they are somehow entitled to power, and that - when power is denied them - allows them to claim that they - and the country - have been cheated? Since the election of Bill Clinton in 1992, and that of Tony Blair in 1997, the tone of much of the criticism from the right has not been about policies but has focused instead upon the legitimacy of the administrations themselves: Clinton won because he was a serial liar; Blair won because he was a ruthless dissembler; and now Gore is trying to cheat his way into the White House by what amounts to an election fraud. They would have us believe that the Vice-President - in the words of a spoof poster - is a Sore Loserman.

[snip]

Now the Republican attack dogs are out. You would expect the far-right shock-jocks and radio-show hosts like Rush Limbaugh to continue their anti-liberal campaigning in intemperate tones. But look who's joined them! The bulk of the right-leaning press, commentators and academics seem to have united in attempting to portray the incredibly cautious, centrist Democrats as being somehow the products of a hellish liaison between the Whore of Babylon and Vladimir Lenin.

Peggy Noonan, Reagan's brilliant scriptwriter, yells that "the Gore-Clinton Democratic Party is trying to steal the election". The eminent conservative George Will risks a hernia with the sentiment that "the Clinton-Gore era culminates with an election as stained as the blue dress." (It is unwise, incidentally, to interrogate this metaphor too closely. I tried, and regretted it.)

Claudia Rosett writes in The Wall Street Journal that Gore, learning from his boss, "has every reason to figure that he might as well go right on trying to target and redefine those vital Florida ballots until they become, well, whatever they need to be to elect Mr Gore". For her, it's all part of a pattern. "The unprecedented wrangling and lawyering of Mr Gore," she continues (somehow overlooking the lawyering of Mr Bush), "over the vote count is just the first real sample of Mr Clinton's true legacy."

[snip]

So let's get this clear. If Gore wins, though he will lack authority, he will be a legitimate victor. Should, however, the ludicrous Bush (who says he doesn't like messy situations; he should enjoy the Middle East, then) be inaugurated next January, he will be the president who got 320,000 fewer votes than his rival, and who finally triumphed because there just wasn't enough time for one county to hold a recount - a recount described as being democratically essential by the Supreme Court of Florida.

My God, can you imagine how he would have fared had he been a Democrat?

Labels: 2008 election, Al Franken, Norm Coleman

Labels: 2012 election, Bush family, icepick meet forehead

Labels: pop culture

Toyota Motor Corp. is secretly developing a vehicle that will be powered solely by solar energy in an effort to turn around its struggling business with a futuristic ecological car, a top business daily reported Thursday.

The Nikkei newspaper, however, said it will be years before the planned vehicle will be available on the market. Toyota's offices were closed Thursday and officials were not immediately available for comment.

According to The Nikkei, Toyota is working on an electric vehicle that will get some of its power from solar cells equipped on the vehicle, and that can be recharged with electricity generated from solar panels on the roofs of homes. The automaker later hopes to develop a model totally powered by solar cells on the vehicle, the newspaper said without citing sources.

The solar car is part of efforts by Japan's top automaker to grow during hard times, The Nikkei said.

Labels: automobile industry

Labels: personal musings

Labels: bloggers

When Mr. Hawthorne recalls Missy, he tends to wax eugenic. “She was an amazing dog: superior intellect, incredibly beautiful, obedient, a phenomenal temperament,” he said. “I especially loved her majestic plume of a tail.” And in the clones, as he put it matter-of-factly, “all those qualities are represented.”

As for some of the discrepancies, the clones vary in size and color, Mr. Hawthorne said, primarily because they were born months apart, and none are fully grown yet. “The dark part of their fur starts out reddish-black and gets blacker over time,” he said. “Except on the faces, which start out black and go white within the first year.”

[snip]

While he does acknowledge that when it comes to such highly trainable creatures as dogs, it’s pretty difficult to know where nature ends and nurture begins, he said that in the case of his dogs, the ambiguities have nothing on the essential Missy-ness of the clones.

“The girls love to run after each other,” he said pointing at the dogs in the distance. “You see the speed and athleticism? That’s part of what made me want to do this. There are dogs that are faster on a straightaway, but I’d never seen a dog make turns like this until Missy.”

Mr. Hawthorne sees himself as a cultivator of prodigious talent — from the clones to his team of scientists in South Korea to his 8-year-old son, Skye, who had accompanied him and the dogs on the hike. Skye is in third grade but is already studying high school algebra. Mr. Hawthorne brought along a notebook with a handful of quadratic-equation problems, in case his son got restless.

Last spring, Skye completed a science project, “Cloning Grandma’s Dog” that included a behavioral comparison chart. Among other findings, the study concluded that Mira shares Missy’s fondness for broccoli and “lots of snuggles” — both dogs scored five out of five points in these categories, in addition to the one for “likes long walks.” (“Most dogs do,” Skye noted under “comments.”) Two key matters of variance were “Jumps into cars” (“Clone still learning which car is ours”) and “Hates camera flash” (“Clone did not respond to standard flash”).

Ultimately, Skye determined that Mira looked a lot like Missy but that their behavior was only 77 percent similar. “But that was April,” Mr. Hawthorne said. “I think they’re a lot more similar now.”

LIVING with a clone, Mr. Hawthorne claims, is a lot like living with the original dog. “It’s totally as if I’ve got Missy in my house, once you get over the ‘wow’ factor,” he said. He and Mira and Skye inhabit a two-story “1950s futurist house” built into a hill in Mill Valley (Mr. Hawthorne is divorced and shares custody of his son with his ex-wife — “an excellent genetic donor, by the way,” he said of her). At night, he said, Mira “puts Skye to bed,” which means she walks with him to his room and ascends the stairs of his loft bed with him, waiting to be told “Good night” before she leaves. Mira is an outdoor dog, as Missy was, and sleeps on the front steps.

[snip]

nd who says goodnight to Mira’s fellow clone, MissyToo? Mr. Hawthorne gave her to his mother, Joan Hawthorne, who still misses the original Missy. But she has yet to take a liking to Missy’s progeny, and the dog has lived primarily with paid “handlers” in the Mill Valley pied-à-terre of her longtime companion, John Sperling.

“They’re not at all alike,” Ms. Hawthorne said of the old Missy and the new one. “In looks, they are a little bit, of course. But, I mean, the puppy is delicate and aggressive. Missy was robust and completely calm.” She added, “Missy wouldn’t come through my home and knock over every wineglass.”

Besides, she adopted another puppy not long after Missy died. “I already have a dog — a real dog.”

Labels: personal musings, pets